Social media reminds me of those theories in which the universe is supposedly expanding until gravity eventually catches up with it, growth stalls, and then it collapses upon itself.
Part of the huge appeal of SM is the idea that we can continue adding new connections. Individuals love this as they meet intriguing people and get the game-mechanism reward of an upward clicking follower count. Marketers love it because we dream memes can go viral, exponential, universal across the new threads among human minds.
But that’s all BS, really.
Instead, social media is to human connections what the automobile was to walking … a tool that has marginally expanded our capacity, but not to infinity. Just as you can commute 40 miles comfortably now instead of walking 4, we can build rapport with perhaps 1,500 people instead of 150. The rules of Robin Dunbar’s relationship caps have not expired, simply been reset.
I think the inevitable conclusion is that as we all begin to max out, get stretched as far as comfortable, we’ll all stop, rethink, and settle in to a plateau of new relationships. Unsustainable growth will have to reset at a new, stable level. We’ll end up with expanded bubbles of relationships, and when that happens, the hyperbole over the next new way to connect will likely subside.
Follow this logic and you’ll come to a few conclusions:
- In a year or two, social media tech buzz will fade as it becomes just another form of “media,” as boring and utilitarian as email.
- The dreams of marketers to be able to go “viral” easily will falter as individuals wall themselves off with new, slightly larger, but more disconnected groups of relationships.
But if the dying marketing fad upsets you, don’t feel sad. We’ll always have CRM. (Customer Relationship Management)
Ben Kunz is the Director of Strategic Planning, and sometimes wishful thinking, at ad planning shop Mediassociates. He blogs about all things sexy at ThoughtGadgets where you can subscribe for free!
Image: VOD Cars
Chicken Little Has a Lot of Followers | Straight Talk with Ben Kunz
I tend to agree with this Ben, though not in its entirety.
Sure the buzz will fade, but the medium will evolve, god only knows what new feature or app, combination off or spaghetti mash-up is just around the corner that takes the whole thing in another direction (if the level of development don’t burn the whole house to the ground in the mean time) but I do agree that things will slow down and plateau somewhat, in fact I’m looking forward to it and here’s hoping that this is where social media will come into its own…
But then I’m an idealist…
Oh, yes! And we can be “early adopters” and build huge followings that will then translate into low-paying speaking engagements until the platform starts to change and we end up spending most of the day whining about how good things once were!
The buzz will die down. Effective usage has no place to go but up.